Olympics Predictions 2024: Projecting Final Medal Table for USA and Top Nations

Jake RillJuly 24, 2024

Olympics Predictions 2024: Projecting Final Medal Table for USA and Top Nations

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    US' Katie Ledecky takes part in a training session at Paris La Defense Arena, Nanterre, in the northern outskirts of Paris, on July 23, 2024. (Photo by Clodagh Kilcoyne / POOL / AFP) (Photo by CLODAGH KILCOYNE/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)
    CLODAGH KILCOYNE/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

    The Summer Olympics in Tokyo were delayed from 2020 to 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, when they finally occurred, the United States had a tremendous showing, finishing with 113 medals and 39 golds, both the most for any nation.

    The U.S. will look to have another strong performance at the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris, which are set to begin Friday and will run through Aug. 11. It marks the third time the Summer Games are being held in Paris, along with the 1900 and 1924 editions.

    Many of the most popular sports have returned this time around. Breaking will be making its Olympic debut, while surfing, skateboarding, sport climbing and 3-on-3 basketball are all back for the second time.

    Which countries are poised to fare the best? Here's a look at the nations that should collect the most medals, along with projections for how many each will win (via Nielsen's Gracenote system).

1. United States

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    LONDON, ENGLAND - JULY 22: LeBron James of The United States looks on during the 2024 USA Basketball Showcase match between USA and Germany at The O2 Arena on July 22, 2024 in London, England. (Photo by Paul Harding/Getty Images)
    Paul Harding/Getty Images

    Projections: 39 golds, 32 silvers, 41 bronzes for 112 total medals

    It sure seems like the United States will be leaving Paris with the most medals, just as it did in Tokyo three years ago.

    The U.S. men's basketball team is loaded with stars, as the country will seek its fifth consecutive Olympic gold medal. The Americans finished in first at the Tokyo Games by notching an 87-82 victory over France in the final.

    Caeleb Dressel (men's swimming), Sha'Carri Richardson (women's track), Katie Ledecky (women's swimming), Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone (women's track), Noah Lyles (men's track) and Simone Biles (women's gymnastics) are among the top individual U.S. performers to watch. Plus, the Americans should fare well in plenty of the team sports.

    Even if the U.S. doesn't quite reach 113 total medals like it did in Tokyo, the nation should again put up an impressive final number.

2. China

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    PARIS, FRANCE - JULY 23: Table tennis players Wang Chuqin and Sun Yingsha of Team China attend a training session at the South Paris Arena ahead of the Paris 2024 Olympic Games on July 23, 2024 in Paris, France. The Paris Olympics will be held from July 26 to August 11. (Photo by Bai Yu/CHINASPORTS/VCG via Getty Images)
    Bai Yu/CHINASPORTS/VCG via Getty Images

    Projections: 34 golds, 27 silvers, 25 bronzes for 86 total medals

    If there's any country that could win more golds than the United States, it's likely China.

    At the Tokyo Games, China won 37 golds, only one fewer than the U.S. And China also came away with 89 total medals, the second most of any country.

    Sun Yingsha is currently the No. 1-ranked women's table tennis player in the world, and she's the favorite to win the gold in Paris. But there are plenty of other talented Chinese athletes to keep an eye on, including both Zheng Haohao (women's skateboarding) and Quan Hongchan (women's diving).

    Zheng Haohao is actually only 11 years old and will be the youngest Olympian competing at the 2024 Games. She'll also be the youngest Chinese athlete in Olympic history.

3. Great Britain

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    PARIS, FRANCE - JULY 22: Tom Daley of Team Great Britain trains at Olympic Aquatics Centre ahead of the Paris 2024 Olympic Games on July 22, 2024 in Paris, France. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
    Sarah Stier/Getty Images

    Projections: 17 golds, 20 silvers, 26 bronzes for 63 total medals

    The United States and China should finish in the top two spots on the medal table, although it could be in either order. After that, it's tougher to predict which nation will finish in the No. 3 spot and beyond.

    Great Britain, France, Australia and Japan are among the countries that could contend for the No. 3 spot and should secure plenty of medals. However, the most likely to finish just behind the U.S. and China is Great Britain.

    One British athlete to watch is men's diver Tom Daley, who won his first Olympic gold at the Tokyo Games. The 30-year-old has the potential to fare even better in the diving events by winning multiple golds in Paris.

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