Tigers Ace Tarik Skubal's Top 5 Landing Spots amid MLB Trade Rumors

In addition to the one with the familiar Old English "D" on it, Tarik Skubal is wearing two other notable hats these days.

The Detroit Tigers ace is arguably the best pitcher in Major League Baseball, and he's undeniably the best player available in this last week before the July 30 trade deadline.

Granted, there's room for skepticism regarding exactly how available Skubal is right now. The Tigers are on a nice run, winning 11 out of 15 to get to within two games of breaking even at 50-52. And for his part, the ace left-hander doesn't sound like he wants out.

"I don't really know if we have any say in what [the front office is] doing," the 27-year-old said after his start on Monday. "So we're just going to focus on winning today's game and tomorrow's game. But that's all I've really got to say about that."

Per ESPN's Alden Gonzalez, it "seems unlikely" that Skubal will be on the move before next Tuesday's deadline.

The trade winds are nonetheless swirling, with Bob Nightengale of USA Today reporting that the Tigers have discussed Skubal with two notable contenders.

As such, it's fair game to assess Skubal's trade value and muse about potential landing spots and trade packages.

However much trade value you may think Skubal has, chances are it's even higher than that.

His claim to the throne of Best Pitcher in Baseball is strong indeed. Between the 20 starts he's made in 2024 and the 15 starts he made in 2023, he's on a 35-start run marked by a league-best 2.52 ERA and 6.9 times as many strikeouts as walks over 203.1 innings.

What's under the hood looks just as good. It's especially hard to not be a fan of Skubal's fastball, which touches 100 mph, and changeup, which comes with a 47.0 whiff rate.

Beyond youth, results and pure stuff, Skubal has an affordable salary and club control going for him. He's making a modest $2.7 million this year, with two more trips through arbitration due up in 2025 and 2026.

All told Baseball Trade Values estimates Skubal to have $105.9 million in surplus value. That puts him about $25 million above even Jackson Holliday, who's generally considered the No. 1 prospect in baseball.

Accordingly, Jon Morosi of MLB Network is right to think that it'll take a Juan Soto-level package to score Skubal from Detroit:

It stands to reason that Skubal's list of real suitors is very, very short. It basically comes down to win-now teams with excess prospects, which is a Venn diagram with very little overlap.

It's therefore appropriate to forgo a typical list of 10 prospective suitors for one that contains only five, though we can touch on some honorable-mention long shots before we get to that.

Note: All farm system and prospect rankings are courtesy of B/R's Joel Reuter, with WAR courtesy of Baseball Reference and depth charts courtesy of RosterResource.

Houston Astros

Record: 52-49, 1st in AL West

Starting Pitching WAR: 5.4 (17th)

Current Rotation: Framber Valdez, Ronel Blanco, Spencer Arrighetti, Jake Bloss, Hunter Brown

The Astros are worth thinking about as a fit for Skubal because they've been battling injuries within their starting rotation all season long. But the idea quickly falls apart, as they have Justin Verlander and Luis Garcia on the comeback trail and are short on prospects anyway.

Atlanta

Record: 54-45, 2nd in NL East

Starting Pitching WAR: 8.9 (7th)

Current Rotation: Reynaldo López, Chris Sale, Charlie Morton, Spencer Schwellenbach

Atlanta has weathered the storm since losing Spencer Strider to Tommy John surgery, but now Max Fried is hurt and Morton (age) and Sale and López (workload) have their own concerns. But this team likely doesn't have the prospects for Skubal, and it more so needs a bat anyway.

Milwaukee Brewers

Record: 58-43, 1st in NL Central

Starting Pitching WAR: (3.8, T-22nd)

Current Rotation: Freddy Peralta, Aaron Civale, Tobias Myers, Colin Rea

Starting pitching has been a relatively weak spot for the Brewers, but clear skies are in view after the Civale trade and with DL Hall's return imminent. It's hard to see them being the team to go all-out for Skubal, and they might not have the goods to get him anyway.

Cleveland Guardians

Record: 60-40, 1st in AL Central

Starting Pitching WAR: 0.3 (29th)

Current Rotation: Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Ben Lively, Carlos Carrasco, Xzavion Curry

The Guardians can envy even Milwaukee's starting pitching, and they absolutely should be on the lookout for upgrades. But them making a deal as big as one for Skubal would be out of character. It doesn't help that they literally can't trade their best prospect, the newly drafted Travis Bazzana.

St. Louis Cardinals

Record: 53-48, 2nd in NL Central

Starting Pitching WAR: 1.4 (28th)

Current Rotation: Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas, Andre Pallante, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson

The starters the Cardinals have don't miss many bats, so getting a guy like Skubal would be the best possible upgrade. But is this team worthy of such a huge splash? It only has a loose hold on a wild-card spot, and its future is short on certainty.

Minnesota Twins

Record: 55-45, 2nd in AL Central

Starting Pitching WAR: 4.6 (T-19th)

Current Rotation: Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson

As their farm system is the fourth-best in MLB, the Twins absolutely have the prospect capital to afford Skubal. And they have a need for him, to boot. But trading that much talent within the division would be suboptimal, which is to say nothing of the franchise's iffy finances.

Record: 53-50, 2nd in NL West

Starting Pitching WAR: 7.1 (12th)

Current Rotation: Dylan Cease, Michael King, Randy Vásquez, Matt Waldron

The following should be written on parchment or carved in limestone: If any kind of big trade is any kind of possibility, the Padres must not be ruled out.

Making big trades is kind of A.J. Preller's thing, as his track record includes the first Juan Soto megadeal and, more recently, the Luis Arraez trade from back in May. He is nominally San Diego's president of baseball operations and general manager, but he might as well have a business card that reads "Chief Wheeler-Dealer."

Preller has reportedly had his eye on another ace lefty in Garrett Crochet, so why not Skubal as well? He's an even more impressive ace and, therefore, an ideal addition to a hypothetical near-future rotation consisting of him, Cease, King, Yu Darvish, and Joe Musgrove.

Trade Proposal: San Diego Padres get LHP Tarik Skubal; Detroit Tigers get SS Leodalis De Vries (Padres No. 1, MLB No. 19), C Ethan Salas (Padres No. 2, MLB No. 28), LHP Robby Snelling (Padres No. 3)

On paper, at least, this is a pretty good package. Two of the three prospects are of the elite variety, and Baseball Trade Values puts the surplus value for the trio at a hefty $95 million.

But would such an offer actually be made? Likely not. According to Jeff Passan of ESPN, the two teenagers in this package (i.e., the 17-year-old De Vries and the 18-year-old Salas) are "off-limits" in trade talks.

Record: 64-37, 1st in NL East

Starting Pitching WAR: 9.7 (5th)

Current Rotation: Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sánchez, Tyler Phillips, Ranger Suárez

Three members of the Phillies' rotation made the National League All-Star team, and the unit as a whole leads MLB with a 3.20 ERA. So, what are they doing here?

It would be a good question if not for Morosi's report on Tuesday that the Phillies "are looking at rotation upgrades" and that Crochet and Jack Flaherty are among their targets. If so, it would be odd if they looked intently at the two of them without also looking at Skubal.

The Phillies acquiring Skubal would be the ultimate case of president of baseball operations David Dombrowski leaving nothing to chance. He loves star players, and adding another one to this roster would only make the Phillies even more of a favorite to win it all.

Trade Proposal: Philadelphia Phillies get LHP Tarik Skubal; Detroit Tigers get OF Justin Crawford (Phillies No. 1, MLB No. 31), RHP Andrew Painter (Phillies No. 2, MLB No. 34), 3B Aidan Miller (Phillies No. 3, MLB No. 42)

The phrase "Herschel Walker trade" gets thrown around a lot, but this is a Herschel Walker trade. In this package are the Phillies' three best prospects, whose total surplus value comes out to $102.5 million. A Skubal-sized sum, in other words.

But would the Phillies really offload this much talent to acquire a player who represents a want more than a need? Perhaps nothing should be ruled out while their World Series window is this wide-open, but it seems like a reach.

Record: 60-43, 2nd in AL East

Starting Pitching WAR: 8.8 (8th)

Current Rotation: Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes, Marcus Stroman, Carlos Rodón, Luis Gil

The Yankees' starting pitching was a bright spot for a while, but not anymore. Just take a gander here:

• Through June 14: 2.77 ERA (1st)
• Since June 15: 5.87 ERA (30th)

One bit of good news is that Clarke Schmidt won't be out with a strained lat forever, yet that's only so much comfort right now. The rotation is merely one area where the Yankees feel thin on talent, so much so that it's folly to think small in terms of cures.

Skubal would fit the bill as a big cure who would increase the Yankees' World Series odds. As it is, they're lower than they should be after 14 seasons on the outside looking in at the Fall Classic, not to mention in the face of Juan Soto's looming free agency.

Trade Proposal: New York Yankees get LHP Tarik Skubal; Detroit Tigers get OF Jasson Domínguez (Yankees No. 1, MLB No. 27), OF Spencer Jones (Yankees No. 2, MLB No. 75), C/1B Ben Rice (Yankees No. 5)

According to Passan, neither Domínguez nor Jones is "entirely off the table" in trade talks. They can't be if the Yankees mean to go after Skubal, and it's hard not to ponder the idea after Jon Heyman of the New York Post threw cold water on a Crochet pursuit.

However, this is another underwhelming offer that only consists of $70.1 million in surplus value. And besides, Rice is needed where he is at first base and Domínguez is currently nursing an oblique strain.

Record: 61-41, 1st in NL West

Starting Pitching WAR: 5.0 (18th)

Current Rotation: Gavin Stone, Justin Wrobleski, River Ryan, Landon Knack

Take that "Current Rotation" for what it's worth, which isn't much while Tyler Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw are both nearing their returns off the IL.

According to Passan, the Dodgers are nonetheless "eyeing big names" ahead of the trade deadline. As per the previously mentioned Nightengale report, Skubal is one of them.

A deal for Skubal would add to Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman's rich trade history, which covers "World Series or bust" midseason deals for Darvish, Manny Machado and Max Scherzer and Trea Turner. Another is surely needed, as it's high time for Los Angeles' rotation to pick up some slack in the workload department.

Trade Proposal: Los Angeles Dodgers get LHP Tarik Skubal; Detroit Tigers get RHP Bobby Miller, OF Josue De Paula (Dodgers No. 1, MLB No. 53), C/1B Dalton Rushing (Dodgers No. 2, MLB No. 69)

Including Miller in a swap for Skubal might seem a little like robbing Peter to pay Paul, but it would fit with the theme of this deal: present ability for future upside. Miller is two years younger than Skubal and under club control through 2028.

Between him, De Paula and Rushing, the total surplus value of this package comes out to $95 million. Almost a perfectly fair deal, in other words, yet it's still possible for the Tigers to do a better trade with another team instead of insisting on add-ons from the Dodgers.

Record: 60-40, 1st in AL East

Starting Pitching WAR: 5.6 (T-15th)

Current Rotation: Corbin Burnes, Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer, Albert Suárez

Burnes has been everything the Orioles could have hoped for, and the guys sharing the rotation with him have done a decent job of keeping up.

"Decent" is not the same as "good," however, so it makes sense that the Orioles are the other team that Nightengale has linked to Skubal. He'd be the co-ace that Burnes doesn't have and, indeed, won't get from within in the wake of Kyle Bradish and John Means undergoing Tommy John surgery.

Plus, Skubal wouldn't merely boost Baltimore's chances of making it to the World Series for the first time since 1983. He could also be a sort of preemptive replacement for Burnes, who's destined to score big money in free agency this winter.

Trade Proposal: Baltimore Orioles get LHP Tarik Skubal; Detroit Tigers get 3B Coby Mayo (Orioles No. 2, MLB No. 11), C Samuel Basallo (Orioles No. 3, MLB No. 13)

There's indeed smoke between these two teams, as Morosi further reports that the Tigers have been scouting the Orioles' Triple-A team. Which, as it happens, is home to more elite prospects than just Holliday.

If the O's don't want to move Holliday, well, they don't need to. Albeit a big one, he's but one piece in a top-five farm system. And if the Tigers went for an offer of Mayo and Basallo, they'd actually get more surplus value ($117.4 million) than Skubal has on his own.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.